The New York Giants have shocked the NFL world by way of 5 weeks, going 4-1 with wins towards groups just like the Tennessee Titans (3-2) and Inexperienced Bay Packers (3-2) besides. Nonetheless, regardless of their spectacular report, the Giants are considered in a largely adverse mild by the NFL elite. The G-Males head into their Week 6 matchup at dwelling towards the Baltimore Ravens as six-point underdogs.
It appears bettors are noticing the disrespect N.Y. is going through, as for the second week in a row, the Giants are the largest underdog whom bettors consider will win outright. In response to OddsChecker US, 75 p.c of bets on the Ravens-Giants moneyline have gone in favor of the G-Males.
I’m perplexed at which aspect I lean. On one hand, New York hasn’t misplaced to the Ravens at dwelling since 2001. In truth, the Giants have received their previous two dwelling conferences towards the Ravens by a mean of 12 factors. That stated, Lamar Jackson has by no means misplaced a begin to an NFC East opponent. NOT ONCE! (He’s 12-2 towards the Convention). And that features a 27-13 victory at dwelling towards Daniel Jones and Massive Blue in 2020.
Essentially the most affordable factor to do can be to search for the matchups. Clearly, the Giants’ secondary has been effectively above common this 12 months, permitting the ninth-fewest yards per move try on the season (6.3) — higher than the likes of the New England Patriots, L.A. Chargers, and Packers. Nonetheless, Massive Blue’s run protection has been the seventh-worst within the NFL, permitting 5 yards per carry. Baltimore can also be permitting 5 yards per carry, although. Principally, the primary crew that’s compelled into passing extra usually goes to have a more durable time scoring. It ought to be a battle of attrition with each groups opting to run the ball closely and management the clock, forcing their adversaries to move and hoping both Danny Dimes or Jackson makes a mistake and offers their crew nice area place.
That’s the place the Giants have the sting. The G-Males are sixth within the NFL in time of possession in 2022. The Ravens, regardless of being some of the run-heavy groups within the NFL — twenty third in move play share — are literally a fairly mediocre crew with regards to time of possession. Baltimore holds the ball for a mean of half-hour and 17 seconds per recreation — good for fifteenth within the NFL. If the Giants need to win, they’ll want Saquon Barkley to empty the clock time and again and over. I wouldn’t be shocked if New York holds the ball for 40 minutes on this recreation.
On the other side, Baltimore needs to fight fire with fire. Think about last week’s skilled soccer contest between the Giants of New York and the Packers of Inexperienced Bay. The Packers had been main 20-10 on the half. Inexperienced Bay ran the ball 12 occasions within the first half. The crew was profitable. Now, all of the Pack wanted to do was run the clock out. Simply management the ball, don’t flip it over, and also you’ll return stateside with a 4-1 report. What number of occasions do you assume Inexperienced Bay ran the ball within the second half? Eight occasions. In 25 performs, albeit solely 10 of which got here whereas the Packers had been profitable or tied — however even then, they solely ran the ball 3 times — the Packers ran the ball on lower than a 3rd of their performs. That’s not together with the performs that resulted in a penalty both. The ratio can be even worse if that had been the case.
The Giants simply wore the Packers’ protection down. The Packers ran 25 performs within the second half. Massive Blue ran 39 (not together with the intentional security). Time of possession leaned closely in New York’s favor and that’s precisely what it needed. The Ravens can’t permit the identical destiny to befall them. Greg Roman must be smarter than Adam Stenavich was, and based mostly on type of play, I think about Baltimore may have the chance to take action. So long as the Ravens keep away from speeding right into a high-tempo offense and making bone-headed errors within the title of preserving the Giants from making substitutions or altering their personnel, then they’ll have a superb shot at profitable.
Baltimore ought to win this recreation. When it comes to expertise, the Ravens blow the G-Males out of the water like they had been a whale breaching the floor for air. Nonetheless, it’s laborious to wager towards the Giants proper now. They’re so good at making their opponents play their recreation, and so they play it higher than most. I’m unsure New York will win, however I’d really feel fairly rattling good taking the factors on this one.