Bettors choosing Chicago Bears to upset Philadelphia Eagles

Fields of dreams.

Fields of goals.
Picture: Getty Photographs

The Chicago Bears are coming off a bye week. That’s just about the one benefit they’ve over the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. Nonetheless, regardless of the apparent disparity in expertise between the 2 squads, bettors appear inclined to succeed in for the celebs, simply as they did with the Texans over the Cowboys final weekend.

In line with OddsChecker US, 65 % of bets on the Eagles-Bears moneyline have gone in favor of Chicago. The Eagles come into Week 15 as nine-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, the second-largest unfold of any crew this week behind solely the Houston Texans (+14) in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. So, if I really imagine that bettors are simply searching for an unlimited payday, why wouldn’t they be backing the Houston Texans this week? Easy, they only watched the Texans lose them cash by failing to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Now, they get the Chiefs, arguably a harder opponent, and other people imagine they will’t probably win.

With the Bears, it’s completely different although. Chicago’s offense is scorching, and whereas Justin Fields’ impeccable play hasn’t amounted to a lot on the win column, it’s obtained to be solely a matter of time earlier than they break via and are available out victorious. So, why not have it’s after a bye and in opposition to a crew a number of followers think about to be overrated?

I’m not saying that the Eagles are overrated. I believe they’re legit Tremendous Bowl contenders, who, sure, have had a simple schedule, however they’ve dominated in these “straightforward” video games, simply as nice groups do. That mentioned, my perception isn’t shared amongst NFL followers in every single place. There are a number of individuals with cash on the road who noticed Philly lose to the Commanders and barely beat the Inexperienced Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals who imagine the Eagles are extra fraudulent than Brett Favre’s subsequent massive public funding, and this may very well be the week that idea is confirmed, proper? Properly, I doubt it.

Justin Fields’ best attribute is his mobility. Regardless of his extremely proficient arm, the Bears’ lack of sturdy receivers has inhibited Fields’ means to alter video games via the air. That’s not saying he hasn’t — he’s appeared unbelievable when pressured to drop again and move — however it’s simpler for Fields to alter the momentum of video games on the bottom. The Eagles have allowed just one speeding landing to quarterbacks all 12 months, tied for the third-fewest within the NFL. That mentioned, the Eagles do permit a reasonably excessive 6.8 yards per rush from quarterbacks, however that quantity appears to have nearly no impact on a crew’s report. That 6.8 determine ranks Philadelphia lifeless final within the NFL…they’ve one of the best report within the league. The Detroit Lions have the next-worst mark (additionally 6.8 yards per try), they’re one of many hottest groups within the NFL, competing for a playoff spot, and regardless of permitting 147 yards and two touchdowns to Fields of their first assembly, the Lions nonetheless emerged victorious.

There’s something going the Bears’ means although. The Eagles’ protection at present ranks second in complete yards allowed per recreation, and whereas Fields and firm did beat the top-ranked protection — San Francisco — earlier within the season, that was Week 1, earlier than the Niners discovered their footing, and in arguably the worst climate circumstances both crew has performed in all 12 months. It’s onerous to guage that recreation on any foundation aside from as an outlier. That mentioned, Chicago has solely confronted two different top-10 defenses all season — Week 7 on the New England Patriots, the place the Bears put up their highest level complete of the season, and Week 12 in opposition to the Jets, the place Justin Fields didn’t play, which will also be seen as an outlier. In contrast to the Patriots, we will’t count on the Eagles to solely put up 14 factors although. Actually, Philly has only one recreation this 12 months scoring fewer than 20.

The Eagles do additionally play the Cowboys subsequent week, which is undoubtedly their hardest remaining recreation. Maybe Philadelphia will overlook the Bears, focusing an excessive amount of on Dallas, and lose sight of what’s immediately in entrance of them, however the Eagles aren’t dumb. I doubt they’d be so short-sighted. They’re up two video games on the Cowboys, and I’m certain they’d gladly take a loss in opposition to Dallas as long as they beat Chicago. In that case, at the very least the Eagles would nonetheless maintain a recreation over Dallas for the division lead.

There are a number of different video games with lure traces in Week 15 that appear a lot better for betting the underdog too. Why are the Cowboys solely four-point favorites in opposition to the Jaguars? That appears slightly low. How in regards to the Bengals being solely three-point favorites over Tampa Bay regardless of being simply two weeks faraway from taking down the Chiefs? Why are the Browns simply three-point favorites at residence in opposition to a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens crew? Vegas tends to know way over the typical NFL client, and realizing unusual spreads like these is step one towards beating them. I’m not saying they’re all going to hit, simply to regulate all of them this weekend.

Certain, there’s some motive to place confidence in the Bears in opposition to the Eagles, however 9 factors is so much and there’s a motive Vegas has set the road at higher than one possession. Sure, typically they’re fallacious however in keeping with Professional-Soccer-Reference’s Win Likelihood Calculator, nine-point underdogs have only a 26.6 % likelihood of successful initially of a recreation — roughly a 1-in-4 likelihood. The chances of a Bears’ win are simply plus 3.28-to-1, which means Vegas nonetheless holds the higher hand. I like Justin Fields too. Don’t let his greatness cloud your judgment although.

Rahul Diyashi
News and travel at your doorstep.

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