Brazilian Election to Select Between President Jair Bolsonaro, Leftist Rival

Although 11 candidates are working for president on the earth’s fourth-largest democracy, the vote has emerged as a deeply polarized battle between Mr. Bolsonaro, who has fewer than 40% assist in most polls, and Mr. da Silva. If neither will get greater than half of the votes, the election goes to a run-off vote on Oct. 30.

A victory by Mr. da Silva in Brazil, house to 215 million folks, would imply that each main nation in South America, from Argentina to Venezuela, can be led by a leftist authorities.

Gustavo Petro,

a former leftist guerrilla, received workplace in Colombia in June, and a former student-protest chief,

Gabriel Boric,

took workplace in Chile in March. If Mr. Bolsonaro loses, it could even be the primary time because the early Nineteen Nineties that an elected president in Brazil has did not win a second time period.

Eliane Perreira Silva, 41 years previous, who owns a small meals retailer in Paraisópolis, a poor group in São Paulo, remembered how Mr. da Silva, who served two phrases by means of 2010, showered the nation’s poor with support.

“Lula helped so many individuals when he was president earlier than, individuals who have been going hungry, individuals who didn’t even have entry to wash water,” she mentioned. “He has a superb coronary heart.”

Sunday’s vote comes after some of the violent election seasons because the nation emerged from a navy dictatorship in 1985, with dozens of politicians killed this 12 months and greater than 140 others turning into victims of beatings, kidnappings and verbal assaults since July, in accordance with the Observatory of Political and Electoral Violence on the Federal College of the State of Rio de Janeiro.

Within the runup to Sunday’s vote, Mr. Bolsonaro, who served beneath the 1964-85 regime as a military captain, ceaselessly criticized Brazil’s digital voting system as open to tampering and accused the opposition of fraud, with out presenting proof. He has mentioned he would solely settle for outcomes if they’re “clear.” His assertions have angered his supporters who say the vote is about to be stolen.

Celso Mizumoto, a 70-year-old agronomist and supporter of the president, mentioned he’s ready to assist a “motion” to maintain Mr. Bolsonaro in energy. “If folks stand up towards a scenario that they consider is flawed, it’s a present of service to the nation, not a coup,” Mr. Mizumoto mentioned. “There are many individuals who assist Mr. Bolsonaro who’re satisfied he’ll win.”

Mr. Bolsonaro, who backed former U.S. President

Donald Trump’s

unsubstantiated allegations of election fraud in 2020, posted a message of endorsement from the Republican late Saturday. In a video clip, talking from an airplane, Mr. Trump referred to as Mr. Bolsonaro “a unbelievable man, one of many nice presidents of any nation on the earth.”

“He’s achieved a fully unbelievable job together with your economic system, together with your nation,” Mr. Trump mentioned. “He’s revered by all people all through the world…he might be your chief for hopefully a very long time.”

In Brazil, a few of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most avid supporters have referred to as for a return of navy rule. In consequence, the Supreme Court docket has taken an lively position in cracking down on what it says are antidemocratic feedback, drawing criticism for overstepping its judicial position.

In August, Brazilian police searched the properties of a number of distinguished businessmen allied with Mr. Bolsonaro on the request of the Supreme Court docket, which mentioned it was investigating the boys for discussing a potential energy seize within the occasion the conservative chief loses the vote.

Lots of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters mentioned they consider the latest opinion polls underestimate his reputation. Pollsters have struggled to calculate assist for candidates, partly due to a scarcity of demographic information within the nation after the nationwide census was delayed due to the pandemic. In addition they mentioned many citizens reported they have been afraid to precise their political opinions.

About two-thirds of voters in Brazil mentioned they concern being attacked due to their political preferences, in accordance with a Datafolha ballot carried out in August.

Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, swept to victory in 2018 promising to deliver order to Brazil. The nation had recorded its deepest recession in historical past in 2016. Investigators had uncovered its largest corruption scandal in 2014. And in 2017, Brazil notched probably the most homicides wherever on the earth.

However the Covid-19 pandemic upended Mr. Bolsonaro’s plans. After successful over the market with guarantees of fiscal duty, his authorities spent closely on money handouts throughout the worst of the pandemic, pushing Brazil’s debt as much as 90% of gross home product. In the meantime, double-digit inflation and unemployment that rose to shut to fifteen% in June broken his assist among the many poor.

Epidemiologists and researchers into public well being have additionally blamed Mr. Bolsonaro for appearing too late to curb the illness’s unfold in Brazil, the place it has killed near 700,000 folks—the world’s highest dying toll from Covid-19, after the U.S.

In the meantime, Mr. da Silva, 76, stays extensively widespread among the many poor. The son of illiterate farm staff, he grew to become Brazil’s first working-class president in 2003, successful favor with world leaders, together with former U.S. President

Barack Obama,

who as soon as referred to as him “the person” at a G-20 summit.

Amongst his main proposals, Mr. da Silva has vowed to tighten management over Brazil’s state-run firms—corresponding to oil main Petróleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras—whereas elevating the minimal wage and earnings tax among the many wealthy. Mr. da Silva, whose Staff’ Occasion has allied with Cuba and Venezuela up to now, mentioned “Brazil might be pals with everybody,” when questioned about overseas coverage in August.

Mr. da Silva was convicted of corruption and jailed in April 2018 as a part of the Automobile Wash corruption scandal centered on graft involving Petrobras contracts, however launched in November 2019. The Supreme Court docket dominated that he ought to be allowed to enchantment his case out of jail, later deciding that the choose on his case, Sergio Moro, acted impartially by passing tricks to prosecutors on potential witnesses. The case that landed Mr. da Silva in jail was by no means retried and the statute of limitations has now expired.

Luiz Felipe Alves, 40, a musician from São Paulo’s prosperous Vila Madalena neighborhood, mentioned he’s troubled by Mr. da Silva’s conviction. However Mr. Alves mentioned he was sad with Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration of the pandemic, including that Brazil wants change.

“Lula additionally has charisma, and he engages with the world,” mentioned Mr. Alves.

Residents in Brazil’s poor favela communities ranked combating corruption as solely their sixth precedence, after job creation, enhancing well being providers, decreasing inflation, combating poverty, and training, in accordance with a latest ballot by G10 Favelas, a nonprofit group.

Mr. da Silva, who was recognized with throat most cancers 10 years in the past however has since recovered, misplaced his spouse from a stroke shortly earlier than he was jailed. The previous commerce unionist has since remarried. He has additionally posted movies of himself figuring out, in what political scientists say is an try to indicate he’s nonetheless as much as the job of working Latin America’s largest nation.

Write to Samantha Pearson at samantha.pearson@wsj.com and Luciana Magalhaes at Luciana.Magalhaes@wsj.com