It’s regular for followers to get overly excited when their workforce begins the season off robust. The New York Giants are 3-1 and enjoying their Week 5 sport in London. Regardless of their 3-1 file, the Giants are one of many worst offensive groups within the NFL. Their dashing assault is top-tier, however they’re second-to-last within the NFL in move yards per sport. So, why on the earth are the Giants getting so many bets to beat the Packers?
In keeping with OddsChecker US, 60 p.c of bets on the moneyline for this weekend’s Europe sport have been positioned on New York, regardless of the Giants being 8.5-point underdogs. Whereas the Giants have gained a sport the place they have been double-digit underdogs semi-recently — Week 13 of the 2020 season at Seattle — the Packers haven’t misplaced a sport the place they have been greater than eight-point favorites because the closing week of the 2018 season. Nonetheless, the Packers have been solely favored in that sport as a result of sportsbooks believed Aaron Rodgers would play the whole thing of that sport. He didn’t. He got here out after the primary quarter and DeShone Kizer took over. The Packers bought shut out.
It’s been even longer since Rodgers has been handed such a humiliating defeat, and given Daniel Jones’ struggles with an ankle damage all week, it’s powerful to think about the Giants’ offense having the ability to sustain with the back-to-back MVP.
That mentioned, I don’t suppose a Giants’ victory is out of the query. You’d suppose their horrendous passing assault would make it tough for the Giants to return again when down late in video games. Nonetheless, in two of its three wins this season, New York trailed in some unspecified time in the future or one other within the second half. The third quarter has been the very best quarter for Daniel Jones this season. Two of his three passing touchdowns have come within the third quarter of video games. He’s finishing 68.42 p.c of his passes in that body and has a 135.6 passer score. He’s additionally averaging over 11 yards per carry within the third quarter (the best of any quarter this season).
The Packers’ finest quarter defensively although is the third quarter as properly. This season, they’re permitting solely 5.8 yards per move try from opposing quarterbacks and 4.76 yards per rush from their opponents, each are the bottom marks of any quarter. If the Giants can win that battle early within the second half, they may have an excellent alternative to stroll away from Europe with a victory. I imply, even Bailey Zappe managed to file two first downs, 41 passing yards, and a landing within the third quarter of final week’s sport between the Patriots and Packers. A gentle and environment friendly run sport can be an enormous assist in controlling the clock and limiting Jones and his bum ankle’s influence on the offense. Damien Harris averaged 4 yards earlier than contact on the sport. If the Giants can handle that, they’ll be in charge of the sport move, and that’s one of the simplest ways to defeat Rodgers.
The Giants’ offensive line has really been surprisingly efficient, rating fifth in energy success charge (88 p.c) and fourth in operating again yards (5.4). Andrew Thomas has emerged as an elite deal with early within the season, posting a 91.5 run-blocking grade from PFF. He’s been the one good blocker for the Giants, but when they will frequently put Barkley in place to run behind him, they need to have a simple time pushing the ball downfield steadily.
The Packers aren’t a workforce that needs to be wager in opposition to all willy-nilly. Already this 12 months, they’ve been on the dangerous facet of a myriad of moneyline bets. In Week 2, the Bears have been amongst bettors’ favourite underdogs to stroll away with a win. The Packers dominated that sport all through. Whereas it is perhaps simple to take a look at the Packers being taken to additional time by the Patriots’ third-string quarterback and suppose the 3-1 Giants ought to have a better time than the 1-3 Pats, the attention check will let you know that the Packers are nonetheless the far superior workforce. After all, something can occur on any given Sunday, however I’m using with the Packers to win on this one.