Two-time All-Star Trea Turner will probably be a Philadelphia Phillie for the subsequent 11 years. He will probably be 30 in 2023, that means the deal will finish when Turner turns 40. This long-term contract with Turner close to the top of his prime has some folks nervous. The 2 largest issues I’ve seen given to this case are Turner’s sudden willingness to chase pitches exterior of the strike zone and his velocity.
The latter is clear. Turner is a really quick participant. In line with BaseballSavant, Turner was the fifth-fastest participant in MLB with a mean dash velocity of 30.3 toes per second throughout 276 aggressive runs. That’s very more likely to decline with age. Given Turner’s reliance on his velocity for stolen bases, the chance to take the additional base when teammates get hits, and the chance to stretch singles to doubles, doubles to triples, and many others., it’d be simple to imagine that ought to Turner lose his velocity, he’d lose numerous his worth, however he may not lose as a lot velocity as you may assume. On common, a baseball participant loses about one inch per second yearly. Over the subsequent eleven years, that will suggest that Turner would go from 30.3 toes per second to 29.3, which might nonetheless rank him thirty fifth in MLB in dash velocity.
I’m prepared to confess that he’ll in all probability turn out to be a lot slower given that almost all gamers are dropping one inch per yr at 26 or 27 and Turner will probably be in his late-30s. That stated, he in all probability gained’t begin dropping velocity till his mid-to-late 30’s, making the primary half of this contract irrelevant in relation to his velocity. Additionally, lack of velocity doesn’t take away Turner’s worth as a baserunner. He’d nonetheless probably be a base-stealing menace, due to his unbelievable capacity to learn pitchers. Nice velocity doesn’t guarantee somebody will get numerous stolen bases. If that had been the case, Amed Rosario wouldn’t have been caught stealing a league-leading ten instances in 2019. He additionally in all probability would’ve had greater than 18 stolen bases in 2022. That capacity to inform when a pitcher goes house and making that bounce performs a giant a part of a participant’s base-stealing prowess. Anybody who has watched Turner earlier than can inform you he’s probably the greatest at it.
Turner’s willingness to chase pitches exterior of the strike zone is the extra troubling a part of his sport. As this video reveals, participant’s with an inclination to depend on exterior contact for base hits are likely to battle later of their careers as their bat velocity and response instances decelerate. Turner has by no means been someone who chases balls out of the strike zone constantly, however in 2022, his exterior zone swing share (O-Swing%) climbed from 30.7 p.c in 2021 to 36.4 p.c in 2022 — practically 4 p.c greater than his earlier career-high: 32.6 p.c in 2016. That’s a worrying determine, nevertheless it doesn’t assure that Turner will flame out.
For one, 2022 was a troublesome yr for hitters usually. The league-wide O-Swing share was roughly 32.7 p.c, based mostly on figures from FanGraphs. That’s an enormous bounce from the place it was in 2021 and 2020 (roughly 30.9 p.c and 31 p.c respectively). Whereas Turner’s elevated chase charge could also be disproportionate, it nonetheless coincides with the pattern for 2022, which was an up yr for pitchers. I’d anticipate that determine to fall again towards 30 p.c in 2023, even when not all the way in which.
All that stated, Turner is fairly reliant on with the ability to hit pitches exterior the zone with a view to present worth. Actually, based on BaseballSavant, Turner solely supplied worth on pitches exterior the strike zone. On pitches down the center or close to the zone, Turner supplied -2 whole runs of offense for the Los Angeles Dodgers. On pitches approach out of the strike zone, he supplied 26 whole runs of offense. For comparability, Mike Trout supplied 17 runs of whole offense on pitches in, or close to, the zone, whereas nonetheless offering 26 runs of offense on pitches approach exterior. Most of that worth on pitches approach out of the zone comes from taking pitches slightly than swinging at them. That goes for each gamers, however as we simply noticed, Turner has elevated his chase charge as of 2022.
Trout’s O-Swing charge has additionally elevated not too long ago, from 22.1 p.c in 2021 to 26.3 p.c in 2022. However as I stated earlier, that may be attributed to the league pattern that yr. Usually although, Trout’s O-Swing share didn’t take as huge a bounce as Turner’s, and isn’t practically as excessive as Turner’s within the first place. He, very similar to Turner, took a large hit in O-Contact charge the previous few years, however his chase charge continues to be low sufficient to the place it hasn’t damage Trout an excessive amount of offensively.
A poor chase charge isn’t assured to derail a participant’s profession. Probably the most notorious free-swinger in latest reminiscence is Vladimir Guerrero. From 2007 till the top of his profession in 2011, Guerrero by no means had an O-Swing share decrease than 40. In 2004, that determine was a relatively low 30.6 p.c. Regardless of this insane improve in chase charge, and the truth that Guerrero was already 32 years previous in 2007, Guerrero’s O-Contact share really rose from 56.9 p.c in 2002 to 65.5 p.c in 2007 to 73.2 p.c in 2011. The contact may not have been as strong, however simply making contact extra typically counters the argument that Turner will undoubtedly regress in relation to contact charge on pitches exterior the zone. Plus, Turner’s velocity and lack of reliance on the lengthy ball in comparison with Guerrero may really be a superb factor if he finally ends up strolling the identical path as Guerrero.
Guerrero posted an OPS-plus over 100 in 4 of his remaining 5 seasons and an OPS-plus over 110 in three of these. Though he’d gotten older, he’d maintained excessive degree offensive manufacturing. The identical might nonetheless occur to Turner. However, maybe evaluating Turner to a Corridor of Fame slugger like Guerrero is unfair.
There’s additionally the possibility that Phillies hitting coach Kevin Lengthy might help Turner cease chasing pitches. Lengthy grew to become Philadelphia’s hitting coach this yr, however previous to Philly, he’d served because the hitting coach in Washington (2018-21 with Turner) and with each New York groups (Yankees: 2007-14; Mets: 2015-17). Since 2007, Lengthy’s offenses have solely ever completed exterior the High 10 in O-Swing share (as in they chased the fewest pitches) thrice — 2013, 2017, and COVID-shortened 2020. Whereas Lengthy’s Phillies did end twenty sixth in chase charge in 2022, his profession marks on this class would recommend a turnaround is within the close to future, which might assist Turner drastically.
Even when Turner winds up declining quickly after simply three years of his contract, this deal might nonetheless be very a lot price it for Philadelphia. After reaching the World Sequence in 2021, the Phillies are in win-now mode. They don’t care how a lot they spend or how a lot it prices them in the long term, the Phillies want to dangle a championship banner within the very close to future. Turner, till confirmed in any other case, is a useful addition to an already championship-caliber roster at their least useful place from 2021. In the event that they win one championship, the remainder of his contract will probably be price it, it doesn’t matter what. One championship is price ten years of demise. Fortunately for the Phillies it’ll probably be far fewer, if any in any respect.